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Here we go again

Last Updated: September 30, 2025

European politics is back to its old tricks. Just when you thought the Continent was settling down, two governments started disintegrating over a weekend.
A recent market mantra has been the muted effect of politics on asset prices. That always seemed a bit of a stretch, considering the movements in currency markets and the bull-run of US equities set off by a change in US taxes. It could be said that the steady rise in US Treasury yields were driven in large part by this change in the US political environment. Now ructions in Europe have put the “end of politics” claim to bed.

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Spring is sprung

Last Updated: September 30, 2025

The Bank of England is expected to hold interest rates at 0.5% when its monetary policy committee meets on Thursday. For the past few weeks, Governor Mark Carney has backpedalled on a May hike following a run of poor economic data. With the committee gun-shy about pulling the trigger when economic data are glum, it could be some time before we see another rate rise. GDP growth has been trending downward for a year now, posting a paltry 1.2% annual expansion in the first quarter.