The Sharpe End podcast

The team discuss the very different approaches to government investment in the US and UK and how this impacts the relative attractiveness of those economies. Next-generation weight loss drugs have grabbed the headlines of late, but unpicking the long-term impacts of these treatments on businesses is fraught with difficulty. Then, in the interests of balance, the team turn to alcohol and burgers as they discuss their recent switch from drinks giant Diageo to fast-food behemoth McDonalds.

With an array of UK retailers struggling and the housing market slump deepening, the team discuss managing exposure to the UK and why they are keeping an eye on the escalating government clampdown on Airbnb. Also, in recognition of National Inclusion Week, the team share how they think about diversity when investing and why Nike, one of the few consumer stocks they hold, is one company that has navigated this area successfully.

The team cast their minds back to the days before we knew what COVID was and when inflation was considered conquered to review an investment report they published in 2019 called Ditch the Models. Which of these models the team suggested ditching panned out the way they expected? And are there any others that could do with being ditched today? The swiftly growing animal health sector is the final topic as the team discuss how to avoid the dogs in the space and hopefully end up as the cats who got the cream.

The chemicals sector is often the canary in the economic coal mine, so a spate of profit warnings spark a discussion among the team. Meanwhile, is the pent-up demand from COVID-delayed elective surgeries finally coming on stream, and what would it mean for med-tech companies? Finally, the team takes a deep dive on German industrial giant Siemens, which has spent a decade reshaping its business.

Commodities have fallen from their lofty 2022 heights, so are they starting to get interesting again? The team discuss the fortunes of everything from foodstuffs to metals through energy, given the ever-changing backdrop for commodities. Meanwhile, is AI the revolutionary force people are excited about, or another fad generating a bout of market hype? Will long-time holding Adobe, a digital marketing tool supplier known for the humble PDF, harness AI or get eaten by it?

Is America approaching the finish line for interest rate hikes? The team discuss the latest from the other side of the pond, including all the fun of the debt ceiling political football. Meanwhile, are the fears and stresses in the commercial property market signs of an opportunity or a justified warning to stay well away? That leads the team to ponder US insulation and roofing business, Owens Corning, and the tailwinds that should support the company in coming years.

Given all the recession chat, Rahab tries to bring some positivity to this episode and challenges Will and David to build a bull case for investing. Following the UK’s Green Day announcements, the team also discuss why it seems net-zero is falling down the priority list, what this means for electric vehicles and why they believe global auto technology company Aptiv could be the winner in this space.

Trying to unpick the turmoil in the banking sector, the team discuss what happened in the last week or so and what it means for the future, and explain what action they’ve taken as a result. Their gaze then shifts to our fair shores as they ask whether, after a few years in the investment wilderness, the UK could be on the precipice of some structural changes that might support the economy and perhaps the equity market too.

Could David’s usual prediction of US stocks beating European ones come a cropper this year? The team also explain why US real estate investment trusts are a different ball game for them vs the UK market, and where there are some exciting opportunities. Finally, the team turn a loving, Valentine’s Day gaze towards European luxury goods giant LVMH and discuss just why the company’s resilient earnings are perhaps worth paying a pretty penny for.

The team kick off 2023 discussing the outlook for the year ahead: what stays the same, what changes, and why it’s important not to overreact simply because there’s a new calendar adorning our desks. They also discuss whether consumers trading down in household staples will mean less-resilient revenues, and why they think global skincare and cosmetics giant Estee Lauder presents a different story to its peers.

Join the whole Sharpe End team for the Christmas special edition where Craig, Rahab, and Will hold David to account for his predictions for 2022. Just how well did David call the fortunes of the UK economy? How accurate were his views on speculative technology and cryptocurrency? And, importantly, did he beat last year’s score of 4.5 points!?

With all the shenanigans since our last episode, is the UK now a relative beacon of political stability? If so, does that move the dial for the prices of British assets? The team explain why capital discipline and the resiliency of ad revenue are the order of the day for them given recent weaker earnings from the US tech giants. Finally, do political shifts in China change the long-term picture for investing in the country?

The team ponder whether, after the not-so-mini reaction to the Chancellor’s ‘mini-budget’, it’s finally time to buy UK bonds again or whether US Treasuries still look a better place for capital, and explain how they are tackling currency exposure in the face of a continually volatile pound. Also, what does the return to a world of higher costs of capital and risk-free rates mean for markets, and how should it change how we invest? 

Have US Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s comments at Jackson Hole spooked the team as much as they spooked the market? This month, David, Will, and Craig also discuss how much attention to pay to the weakening US housing market, and finally touch on the video game industry and how it should remain an exciting place to invest for many years to come.

We may have (finally) reached peak inflation, argue David, Will and Rahab this month. Also, they explain how the Tory leadership campaign made them reassess the benefits and pitfalls of deregulation, and why they think water is an exciting investment theme for their portfolios.

This month, David, Will and Craig discuss the wide-ranging impacts of the energy market’s current stresses and complexities. Also, despite some expected post-pandemic catch-up in consumer services spending, the team aren’t tempted by many businesses that have benefited. Finally, they discuss the departure of Prime Minister Boris Johnson in real time and what it might mean for fiscal policy and the UK economy.