Last Updated: September 30, 2025

It looks like much of the nitty-gritty on trade in services, financial services regulation and fishing will be worked out during the transition period.

Last Updated: September 30, 2025

Something has been creeping into our minds over the past few years: in everything from technology, politics and risk to the dynamics of interest rates, the models of yesterday appear to be breaking down.

Last Updated: September 30, 2025

Global stock markets have been unsettled by political and economic uncertainty recently, and swung significantly between gains and losses in the final weeks of 2018. President Trump’s criticism of the Federal Reserve’s latest interest rate rise added to concerns that US consumer demand may be cooling. Meanwhile, trade tensions between America and China continue despite a temporary truce.

• Britain’s Future
• Glasgow Conference

Last Updated: September 30, 2025

At the start of 2018 we identified the concerns that eventually weighed on equity markets, but we hadn’t anticipated the big drop in valuations that would follow.

Last Updated: September 30, 2025

Witnessing a former great fall from grace is never pleasant viewing. When it is an ex-bond market darling, and you are watching its credit rating fall away from top-notch AAA to the opposite end of the investment-grade scale, it makes very painful viewing for bondholders. This has been the fate of General Electric (GE), the largest company by market capitalisation earlier this century, and its bondholders in 2018.

Last Updated: September 30, 2025

Julian Chillingworth and Ed Smith

• Brexit

Last Updated: September 30, 2025

The Brexit saga has taken a predictable turn, though the rout that Prime Minister Theresa May suffered in Tuesday’s Parliamentary vote on her Brexit deal was historical in its magnitude.

Last Updated: September 30, 2025

Today Theresa May has to present her alternative Brexit plan to Parliament. Facing a hostile House of Commons, the Prime Minister says she won’t do so. Instead, she will reiterate that she is continuing to negotiate with the EU in a bid to unpick the Gordian knot of the Irish backstop. In a chilling echo through time, while Mrs May was trying to shore up support among English Brexiteers a bomb blast shook Londonderry. An IRA splinter group took responsibility. According to one version of history, Alexander the Great untied the impossible knot by cutting it.

Last Updated: September 30, 2025

Markets took a dive in December, but we think panicked investors may have got ahead of themselves. Chief investment officer Julian Chillingworth explains why things are relatively ok for global growth, but perhaps not so much for the UK

Last Updated: September 30, 2025

US nonfarm payrolls smashed expectations once again, posting 304,000 new jobs in January instead of the 165,000 forecast. Last month’s number was revised down from exceptionally high to very high. The ISM manufacturing survey rose to 56.6, higher than expected, showing that US producers are busy and confident. Consumer sentiment was soggier, however, dropping to the weakest level of Donald Trump’s presidency. It was likely dragged down by the record 35-day government shutdown, yet it held up significantly better than economists had expected.

Last Updated: September 30, 2025

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Last Updated: September 30, 2025

It’s that time in the ebb and flow of global commerce that investors cast around for the next big threat to the economy, the unforeseen wave that will upend everything.