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Chart of the week: Will Brexit have a global impact?

Last Updated: September 30, 2025

Britain is a small, open economy. ‘Small’ may sound a bit strange when by GDP, the UK is the fifth-largest country in the world. But, in fact, we only contribute 2% of global GDP, which means that we aren’t big enough to unilaterally influence global prices, interest rates, or the global economy at all. We are a small economy and we have some big problems, but a Brexit wobble won’t derail the whole global economy.

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Chart of the week: “Just get it online”

Last Updated: September 30, 2025

In some ways, retail is going through a similar transformation to that of the auto industry, when greater automation and systems seeped into manufacturing decades ago. Nowadays, retail shopping is less about swamping high streets with clothes or sofas in every size and colour. Far better to save your property budget for creating a huge and efficient logistics network to deliver what consumers want, to their door, overnight. In this just-in-time environment, quality data is pivotal. But, very few companies have it, and they tend to reside in Silicon Valley.

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Chart of the week: Feeling short changed?

Last Updated: September 30, 2025

Unfortunately for us, this decimation in the standard of living is unique to the UK. Not only have real wages struggled since 2008, we now have the poorest rate of social mobility of any advanced major economy. Our future is uncertain, and that can’t just be blamed on Brexit. Edward Smith, Rathbones’ head of asset allocation research, discussed his concerns about our small but troubled economy and considered our future at our annual investment conference. 

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Chart of the week: All eyes on the yield curve…

Last Updated: September 30, 2025

As the joke goes, an inverted yield curve has predicted 11 of the past nine recessions. Its traditionally one of the most reliable harbingers of economic recession but a closer look at timings show that its use is limited. Over the past 50 years, the number of months from inversion (defined here as 1-year US Treasury yields surpassing 10-year yields) to recession has ranged from seven up to 24, averaging 14. So, an inverted yield curve has proved to be a reliable indication of recession, but not its timing.

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