2019: the year ahead. Maybe?

Our head of multi-asset investments, David Coombs, gazes into his crystal ball as he prepares for 2019.

New Year 2019 replace 2018 on the sea beach concept

I have just come back from my honeymoon in the Grenadines (Tracey and I tied the knot in Castle Combe – a village in Wiltshire, not the family seat! – at the beginning of the month).

I love the Caribbean. No Christmas decorations (no street lights or walls to hang them on), no wifi and, most importantly, no Brexit chat! This change of marital status coupled with a hiatus from the endless cycles of the digital world gave me much to reflect on as we enter the new year.

So, in what is now a tradition for this time of year, I’ll try to predict the unpredictable for the next 12 months – see here  for last year’s attempt.

These are my 10 predictions for 2019, served – as usual – with a huge pinch of salt:

  1. Amber Rudd to be Prime Minister by Easter or Ruth Davidson by Christmas.
  2. The UK economy enters a protracted recession – Mike Ashley buys every shop on the high street.
  3. Investors give up on complex, quant-driven macro strategies – the world is just too strange!
  4. Incoming Mexican President Andrés Manuel López Obrador will build a wall on his nation’s northern border to keep out US President Donald Trump.
  5. The Fed increases rates only once – the new neutral.
  6. Ten-year gilt yields fall to 0.75% as credit default rates rise.
  7. European stock market value traps will outnumber pot holes on the M4.
  8. The Bank of England will be … well, just irrelevant really.
  9. Volatility will revert to pre-2009 long-term levels – be wary of those efficient frontiers…
  10. Tracey will always be right.

 

 

 

Important legal information

This area of the site is for professional advisers

Please read this page before proceeding, it explains certain legal and regulatory restrictions applicable to the distribution of this information. It is your responsibility to inform yourselves of and to observe all applicable laws and regulations of the relevant jurisdiction.

This section of the website is directed only at investment advisers and other financial intermediaries who are authorised and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority (FCA).

The information provided in this site is directed at UK investment advisers only and must not be circulated to private clients or to the general public. It does not constitute an offer to sell, or solicit an offer to purchase any investments by anyone in any jurisdiction in which such offer or solicitation is not authorised or in which a member of the Rathbone Group is not authorised to do so.

I confirm that I am an investment intermediary authorised and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority. I have read and understood the legal information and risk warnings below:

Important Information (Terms and Conditions)

The information contained on this site is believed to be accurate at the date of publication but no warranty of accuracy is given and the information is subject to change without notice. Any opinions or estimates included herein constitute a judgement as of the date of publication and are subject to change without notice. Furthermore, no responsibility is accepted for the accuracy of any information contained within sites provided by third parties that may have links to or from our pages.

Rathbone Investment Management Limited ("RIM") is authorised by the Prudential Regulation Authority and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority and the Prudential Regulation Authority. Registered Office: Port of Liverpool Building, Pier Head, Liverpool L3 1NW. Registered in England No 01448919.

In accordance with regulations, all electronic communications and telephone calls between Rathbones and its clients are recorded and stored for a minimum period of six months.

The information provided in this site is directed at UK investors only. It does not constitute an offer to sell, or solicit an offer to purchase any investments by anyone in any jurisdiction in which such offer or solicitation is not authorised or in which a member of the Rathbone Group is not authorised to do so.

In particular, the information herein is not for distribution and does not constitute an offer to sell or the solicitation of any offer to buy any securities in France and the United States of America to or for the benefit of United States persons (being resident in the United States of America or partnerships or corporations organised under the laws of the United States of America or any state, territory or possession thereof).

In order to comply with money laundering and other regulations, additional documentation for identification purposes may be required.

Rathbones shall have no liability for any data transmission errors such as data loss, damage or alteration of any kind including, but not limited to, any direct, indirect or consequential damage arising out of the use of services provided or referred to in this website.

Past performance should not be seen as an indication of future performance.

The value of investments and the income from them can fall as well as rise and you may not get back the amount originally invested, particularly if your client does not continue with the investment over the longer term.

Changes in the rate of exchange between currencies may cause the value of an investment to go up or down.

Interest rate fluctuations are likely to affect the capital value of investments within bond funds. When long term interest rates rise the capital value of units is likely to fall and vice versa. The effect will be more apparent on funds that invest significantly in long dated securities. The value of capital and income will fluctuate as interest rates and credit ratings of the issuing companies change.

Tax levels and reliefs are those currently applicable and may change and the value of any tax advantage will depend on individual circumstances.

Investing in emerging markets or small companies may be potentially volatile, as these investments are high risk.

The design, text and images are owned, except as expressly stated by members of the Rathbone Group. They may not be copied, transmitted, displayed, performed, distributed, licensed, altered, framed, stored or otherwise used in whole or in part or in any manner without the written consent of Rathbones except to the extent permitted and under the procedures specified in the copyright Designs and Patents Act 1988, as amended and then only with notices of Rathbones' rights.

Rate this page:
No votes yet

Subscribe to the In the KNOW blog email

Archive