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Has the Bull still got a spring in its step?
Last Updated: September 30, 2025
Last Friday was a momentous day. Not only did it feel like Spring may finally be in the air, but it also marked the nine-year anniversary of the start of the current bull market. Yes, the previous bear market officially ended on 9 March 2009 following a 17-month bloodbath that saw US markets fall by 57% – the second-steepest peak-to-trough decline since 1932.
Turning the clocks back on trade
Last Updated: September 30, 2025
Weathering the markets last week wasn’t too dissimilar to weathering the roads: challenging, and not necessarily good for morale. Markets closed down on Friday; the FTSE 100 had fallen -2.3% during the week and the S&P 500 -0.6%. February closed to the downside across major markets.
One direction?
Last Updated: September 30, 2025
In Iceland, there’s an old saying: if you don't like the weather, wait 15 minutes. Since the start of this year, the markets have proven just as changeable as the fickle Icelandic climate. Earlier this month, the VIX index of volatility – Wall Street’s “fear gauge” – briefly hit the heady heights of 50, marking the biggest one-day rise in the history of the index and its highest level since August 2015.
Too much of a good thing?
Last Updated: September 30, 2025
In the fullness of time, markets are a finely-tuned valuation machine. Risk and reward is weighed in countless transactions allocating capital to the places where it does the most good for society. But in the short-term it looks a bit like a dog’s breakfast.
The big squeeze
Last Updated: September 30, 2025
Volatility is back. After more than a year of record calm in stock markets, the VIX index of S&P 500 volatility briefly hit 50 as it exploded upwards last week.
Stocks up, government shutdown
Last Updated: September 30, 2025
American stocks have matched the longest run of unbroken calm in their history, fittingly at the same time as the US government shuts down due to political impasse.
Chinese whispers
Last Updated: September 30, 2025
The tone of 2018 will be set by bond markets, we believe. How they react to the monetary tightening (or not) of the world’s largest central banks will have important consequences for share markets and investor confidence.
What’s to come?
Last Updated: September 30, 2025
For those interested in stats, another record is about to be challenged: the longest-running period without a 5% fall for the S&P 500.
What a difference a year makes….
Last Updated: September 30, 2025
Rathbones’ Asset Allocation Strategist, Ed Smith, reflects on one year since the outcome of the Brexit referendum and assesses the impact of the decision to leave the European Union on the UK economy.
Looking ahead as central banks look up
Last Updated: September 30, 2025
The relationship between economic growth, inflation expectations and government bond yields is likely to be a dominant investment theme throughout 2018. Already this year financial markets have been spooked by the prospect of higher inflation and higher bond yields. The important question now is how far and how fast will yields rise from here?
Financial planning: estate of the nation
Last Updated: September 30, 2025
Passing on wealth has never cost the UK so much. Inheritance tax (IHT) receipts are surging and reached a record £4.9 billion last year. With property prices rising and IHT allowances frozen until 2021, that trend is likely to continue.
Investment Insights Q2 2018
Last Updated: September 30, 2025
The threat of higher inflation and rising interest rates spooked global stock markets in February and pushed up government bond yields. We expect the trend of rising yields to persist and be a dominant investment theme over the coming year, with implications for equities.