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Investment Insights Q4 2023: Caution needed

Last Updated: November 25, 2025

Reasons to remain cautious about the investment outlook
We acknowledged we might be wrong, and inflation might fall without growth also tumbling in the wake of aggressive interest rate increases. But it wasn’t our base case. We believed inflation would return to the normal range by the end of 2023 — which does seem to be happening outside of the UK — but that a mild recession was a likely corollary. Yet no recession has arrived. An explanation is in order, and we want to address head on why we haven’t changed our outlook.

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