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After 2024’s outsized returns, optimistic realism for 2025

16 December 2024

In these videos Rathbones’ co-chief investment officer Ed Smith gives a review of some key lessons from 2024 and discusses our outlook for 2025


Edward Smith

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Article last updated 24 July 2025.

2024: reflections

In his review of 2024, Rathbones’ co-chief investment officer Ed Smith asks, what lessons can investors take from 2024 into 2025?

 

 

Before we look forward to 2025, our Co-CIO takes stock of 2024 and asks what we can learn from the uncertainties investors faced over the past year. His five lessons are:

 

  1. Don’t fear the unknown; uncertainty does not always translate into market volatility.
  2. When volatility does strike, assess for systemic stress; if none is present, remain invested – the recovery can be very quick.
  3. Bonds are back, but interest-rate risk needs to be managed.
  4. High-quality equities command premium valuations...
  5. …but diversification is key: high-quality firms can be found in most sectors; it’s not only the most dazzling companies at the bleeding edge of exciting technological developments that deliver great returns.
     

 

Looking ahead to 2025

Rathbones’ co-chief investment officer Ed Smith discusses our outlook for 2025

 

 

We believe a market-friendly baseline of stable, if not especially inspiring, global growth, further declines in inflation and continued central bank rate-cutting cycles will support market returns. But at current valuations, in the US in particular, there is not much room for error. How should investors build diversified portfolios in 2025?  

 

 

 

You can also read head of investment strategy John Wyn-Evans’ review and outlook here.

 

 

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The value of your investments and the income from them may go down as well as up, and you could get back less than you invested.