Brexit

When the going gets weird, the weird turn pro. The GameStop upheaval on Wall Street is part of the ongoing democratisation of finance. Ignore its effects at your peril.

A roller-coaster of a year finished on a high note for the markets, and we start 2021 with a sense of relief that one of the most difficult years many of us have ever experienced is behind us.

While we were all cooped up inside, everything was happening out there. Breakthroughs on Brexit and COVID-19 collided with political strife and big moves in bond yields.

A free trade agreement with the EU avoids damaging tariffs, but other barriers remain.

We close a difficult year with a sense of relief, and the tools to deal with the challenges ahead.

Brexit was always going to be hard. The tortuous negotiation of a trade deal highlights the difficult compromise at its heart: the freedom of sovereignty or the prosperity that comes with smooth trade.

Rather than try to reduce it by austerity, inflation or default, the government should focus on keeping the rate of economic growth above the cost of servicing the debt. 

The Bank of England has recently added to its stimulus programme yet again, and it isn’t ruling out negative interest rates. But don’t believe the hype – it’s not yet ruling them in either.

News of a potentially viable vaccine is welcome, yet markets have rocketed back extremely quickly considering it is yet to be approved. With COVID-19 spreading rapidly once again, time is of the essence. 

When it comes to grabbing headlines and stealing attention, reality is at a disadvantage to imagination. Our chief investment officer, Julian Chillingworth, ponders what it means for politics and investments.

Biden has taken the edge in the polls but previous experience begs the question: do polls really matter? Our chief investment officer, Julian Chillingworth, mulls the possible outcomes of the US election and the effectiveness of the UK government’s spending packages. 

Call it pluck or devil-may-care recklessness, the UK has committed to diving out of the EU completely in 2021, deal or no deal. Chief investment officer Julian Chillingworth takes stock of the situation.

​Are the bears in hibernation, or just napping?

People are extremely adaptable as prolonged lockdowns have shown. Yet chief investment officer Julian Chillingworth ponders how changes to the way we live will shake out in the coming months and years.

A peak in new cases is just one milestone on a still-uncertain road to recovery

Austerity is the latest victim as the largest giveaway since 1992 is unleashed.

Boris Johnson has won a strong mandate to get on with his Brexit deal, sending sterling shooting higher. But what else will his government do in the next five years? 

Labour’s manifesto is no ‘revolution’, but radical enough to skew economic risks to the downside.

With the UK economy creaking under the weight of Brexit preparations, the election campaign is well and truly underway. Can the parties’ shower of gifts for voters really be paid for, wonders chief investment officer Julian Chillingworth.

Misinformation is rampant ahead of the UK election, as if things weren’t chaotic enough. Multi-Asset Portfolio Fund manager Will McIntosh-Whyte worries about what plans the politicians may be hiding and how markets will react to the eventual result.

Another deadline, another delay to Brexit – and now another election on top. Meanwhile, the tennis match between China and the US over trade continues, notes our chief investment officer Julian Chillingworth.

As Halloween approaches, the threat of a ‘no-deal’ Brexit has retreated. Our chief investment officer, Julian Chillingworth, outlines a new plan for keeping tabs of the Brexit electoral games.

Brexit is inching closer to resolution. We update our decision tree to help investors assess the possible paths forward.

On the anniversary of Nelson’s great victory in the Battle of Trafalgar, Chief investment officer Julian Chillingworth ponders Boris Johnson’s battle to leave the EU on 31 October after parliament’s latest blockade.

Politics brought a bit of joy to investors last week, with headway made in both the trade war and Brexit. A few more happy surprises could break the gloom, notes our chief investment officer, Julian Chillingworth. Bond investors should be warned.

The Supreme Court is set to rule on Boris Johnson’s parliamentary chicanery, but what difference does it make anyhow? Chief investment officer Julian Chillingworth despairs at a seemingly interminable impasse.

Meet the new boss; same challenges as the old boss

Last week chief investment officer Julian Chillingworth set the scene for what proved to be a week of happy mood music from major central banks. This week all ears will be tuned to the G20 summit of world leaders in the hope of hearing more of the same on the trade front.

These days, when markets get a bit rocky investors shuffle their feet and hint to central bankers that firing up the money presses would be a great idea. Our chief investment officer Julian Chillingworth sets the scene for a potentially blockbuster week of monetary policy.

Nigel Farage’s Brexit Party barrelled to victory in the UK European Union elections in a hurricane result that is likely to make the two mainstream parties bend their policies like trees in a gale.

The fog of uncertainty won’t disperse anytime soon. But the FTSE is an international market, defensive and quite possibly one of the better places to be as global growth slows.

Uncertainty surrounding Brexit is likely to continue for some time. We want to cut through the fog, and consider the broader state of the nation’s economy.

Focus on the longer term and stay invested, albeit with a bias to lower risk companies.

With the Brexit decision tree we shared earlier this year we aimed to make sense of what at times has seemed a senseless situation. There are still many unknowns, but with new information starting to shine through in the last month, we are now publishing an update.

To help us filter out the day-to-day nonsense and make sense of how Brexit could develop over the coming year, we’ve created a simple decision tree.

A decision tree for navigating Brexit uncertainty

Ed Smith, Rathbones asset allocation strategist, spoke at ‘Brexit and 100 days of Trump’, an event in our Liverpool office on 3 May. Here is a summary of Eds presentation.

The probability of a hard Brexit is very much higher now than it was immediately after the referendum, despite a rumoured eleventh hour softening of May's tone ahead of Wednesday's invocation of Article 50.

UK commercial property values increased by 2.4% over the first six months of 2016, according to the IPD All Property Index. Yet these gains were eradicated in the immediate aftermath of the EU referendum — the index fell by 2.8% in July alone. 

Myth 5: foreign investors will withdraw from the UK if it leaves the EU.

Myth 4: The UK's budget balance would improve substantially if we leave the EU.

Myth 3 - Swiss financial services have thrived outside of the EU: this could be a model for the UK.

Myth 2: The UK's trade balance will collapse if we withdraw from the EU.

Myth 1: restricting migrants from the EU will lead to better prospects for UK workers