Brexit
After nearly five years of sharing our Brexit analysis with you, we finally have some clarity. The UK will leave the European Union (EU) in the new year with a free trade agreement in goods. The removal of this policy uncertainty is good news, but significant economic costs remain and further ‘mini-deals’ on trade in services still need to be hashed out.
Review of the week: Like birds in the sky
When the going gets weird, the weird turn pro. The GameStop upheaval on Wall Street is part of the ongoing democratisation of finance. Ignore its effects at your peril.
Read time: 6 mins
Optimistic realism in a vaccinated recovery
A roller-coaster of a year finished on a high note for the markets, and we start 2021 with a sense of relief that one of the most difficult years many of us have ever experienced is behind us.
Read time: 4 mins
Review of the week: A Christmas like no other
While we were all cooped up inside, everything was happening out there. Breakthroughs on Brexit and COVID-19 collided with political strife and big moves in bond yields.
Read time: 6 mins
Investment Update: Brexit deal brings some clarity, but not without costs
A free trade agreement with the EU avoids damaging tariffs, but other barriers remain.
Read time: 16 mins
Investment Update Q1 2021: Optimistic realism in a vaccinated recovery with Brexit
We close a difficult year with a sense of relief, and the tools to deal with the challenges ahead.
Read time: 16 mins
Review of the week: Playing fair by trade
Brexit was always going to be hard. The tortuous negotiation of a trade deal highlights the difficult compromise at its heart: the freedom of sovereignty or the prosperity that comes with smooth trade.
Read time: 6 mins
Investment Update: Dealing with rising UK debt: not all options are bad
Rather than try to reduce it by austerity, inflation or default, the government should focus on keeping the rate of economic growth above the cost of servicing the debt.
Read time: 13 mins
Investment Update: UK rate talk is getting a bit too negative
The Bank of England has recently added to its stimulus programme yet again, and it isn’t ruling out negative interest rates. But don’t believe the hype – it’s not yet ruling them in either.
Read time: 13 mins
Review of the week: The race to roll out a vaccine is on as markets soar
News of a potentially viable vaccine is welcome, yet markets have rocketed back extremely quickly considering it is yet to be approved. With COVID-19 spreading rapidly once again, time is of the essence.
Read time: 6 mins
Review of the week: Telling stories
When it comes to grabbing headlines and stealing attention, reality is at a disadvantage to imagination. Our chief investment officer, Julian Chillingworth, ponders what it means for politics and investments.
Read time: 7 mins
Review of the week: Predicting the unpredictable
Biden has taken the edge in the polls but previous experience begs the question: do polls really matter? Our chief investment officer, Julian Chillingworth, mulls the possible outcomes of the US election and the effectiveness of the UK government’s spending packages.
Read time: 5 mins
Review of the week: Tally ho!
Call it pluck or devil-may-care recklessness, the UK has committed to diving out of the EU completely in 2021, deal or no deal. Chief investment officer Julian Chillingworth takes stock of the situation.
Read time: 6 mins
Investment Update Q3 2020
Are the bears in hibernation, or just napping?
Read time: 1 min
Review of the week: Independence Day lockdown
People are extremely adaptable as prolonged lockdowns have shown. Yet chief investment officer Julian Chillingworth ponders how changes to the way we live will shake out in the coming months and years.
Read time: 5 mins
Investment Update: Making sense of the bounce
A peak in new cases is just one milestone on a still-uncertain road to recovery
Read time: 12 mins
COVID-19 overshadows Budget ’20
Austerity is the latest victim as the largest giveaway since 1992 is unleashed.
Read time: 9 mins
No! Jeremy Corbyn
Boris Johnson has won a strong mandate to get on with his Brexit deal, sending sterling shooting higher. But what else will his government do in the next five years?
Read time: 12 mins
Oh Jeremy Corbyn 2.0: a more radical manifesto
Labour’s manifesto is no ‘revolution’, but radical enough to skew economic risks to the downside.
Read time: 11 mins
Review of the week: Christmas wishlists
With the UK economy creaking under the weight of Brexit preparations, the election campaign is well and truly underway. Can the parties’ shower of gifts for voters really be paid for, wonders chief investment officer Julian Chillingworth.
Read time: 3 mins
Do turkeys vote for Christmas?
Misinformation is rampant ahead of the UK election, as if things weren’t chaotic enough. Multi-Asset Portfolio Fund manager Will McIntosh-Whyte worries about what plans the politicians may be hiding and how markets will react to the eventual result.
Read time: 4 mins
Snakes and ladders
Another deadline, another delay to Brexit – and now another election on top. Meanwhile, the tennis match between China and the US over trade continues, notes our chief investment officer Julian Chillingworth.
Read time: 5 mins
Review of the week: Trick or treat
As Halloween approaches, the threat of a ‘no-deal’ Brexit has retreated. Our chief investment officer, Julian Chillingworth, outlines a new plan for keeping tabs of the Brexit electoral games.
Read time: 4 mins
Brexit means Brexit after all
Brexit is inching closer to resolution. We update our decision tree to help investors assess the possible paths forward.
Read time: 16 mins
Review of the week: The fog of Brexit
On the anniversary of Nelson’s great victory in the Battle of Trafalgar, Chief investment officer Julian Chillingworth ponders Boris Johnson’s battle to leave the EU on 31 October after parliament’s latest blockade.
Read time: 4 mins
Review of the week: Breakthrough (maybe)
Politics brought a bit of joy to investors last week, with headway made in both the trade war and Brexit. A few more happy surprises could break the gloom, notes our chief investment officer, Julian Chillingworth. Bond investors should be warned.
Read time: 5 mins
Review of the week: Breaking point
The Supreme Court is set to rule on Boris Johnson’s parliamentary chicanery, but what difference does it make anyhow? Chief investment officer Julian Chillingworth despairs at a seemingly interminable impasse.
Read time: 5 mins
Shedding light on Brexit ‘unknowns’ part III
Meet the new boss; same challenges as the old boss
Read time: 11 mins
Review of the week: Can warm words stop a cold war?
Last week chief investment officer Julian Chillingworth set the scene for what proved to be a week of happy mood music from major central banks. This week all ears will be tuned to the G20 summit of world leaders in the hope of hearing more of the same on the trade front.
Read time: 4 mins
Review of the week: All eyes on the money printers
These days, when markets get a bit rocky investors shuffle their feet and hint to central bankers that firing up the money presses would be a great idea. Our chief investment officer Julian Chillingworth sets the scene for a potentially blockbuster week of monetary policy.
Read time: 6 mins
Review of the week : A strong message
Nigel Farage’s Brexit Party barrelled to victory in the UK European Union elections in a hurricane result that is likely to make the two mainstream parties bend their policies like trees in a gale.
Read time: 6 mins
Delay, delay: Groundhog Day
The fog of uncertainty won’t disperse anytime soon. But the FTSE is an international market, defensive and quite possibly one of the better places to be as global growth slows.
Read time: 11 mins
The UK faces an uncertain future at a significant moment in history
Uncertainty surrounding Brexit is likely to continue for some time. We want to cut through the fog, and consider the broader state of the nation’s economy.
Read time: 6 mins
The fog of Brexit
Focus on the longer term and stay invested, albeit with a bias to lower risk companies.
Read time: 5 mins
Brexit vote: kicking the can down the road
Read time: 2 mins
Shedding light on Brexit ‘unknowns’ part II
With the Brexit decision tree we shared earlier this year we aimed to make sense of what at times has seemed a senseless situation. There are still many unknowns, but with new information starting to shine through in the last month, we are now publishing an update.
Read time: 8 mins
With six months to go, investors are still wondering what might happen
To help us filter out the day-to-day nonsense and make sense of how Brexit could develop over the coming year, we’ve created a simple decision tree.
Read time: 2 mins
Shedding light on Brexit ‘unknowns’
A decision tree for navigating Brexit uncertainty
Read time: 9 mins
Brexit and 100 days of Trump
Ed Smith, Rathbones asset allocation strategist, spoke at ‘Brexit and 100 days of Trump’, an event in our Liverpool office on 3 May. Here is a summary of Eds presentation.
Read time: 5 mins
Triggering Article 50
The probability of a hard Brexit is very much higher now than it was immediately after the referendum, despite a rumoured eleventh hour softening of May's tone ahead of Wednesday's invocation of Article 50.
Read time: 4 mins
UK commercial property has been resilient despite Brexit uncertainty
UK commercial property values increased by 2.4% over the first six months of 2016, according to the IPD All Property Index. Yet these gains were eradicated in the immediate aftermath of the EU referendum — the index fell by 2.8% in July alone.
Read time: 3 mins
Ed Smith talks to Share Radio about the myths around Brexit
Read time: 1 min
Brexit infographic: myth 5 - foreign investment
Myth 5: foreign investors will withdraw from the UK if it leaves the EU.
Read time: 1 min
Brexit infographic: myth 4 - public finances
Myth 4: The UK's budget balance would improve substantially if we leave the EU.
Read time: 1 min
Brexit infographic: myth 3 - financial services
Myth 3 - Swiss financial services have thrived outside of the EU: this could be a model for the UK.
Read time: 1 min
Brexit infographic: myth 2 - trade and industry
Myth 2: The UK's trade balance will collapse if we withdraw from the EU.
Read time: 1 min
Brexit infographic: myth 1 - immigration
Myth 1: restricting migrants from the EU will lead to better prospects for UK workers
Read time: 1 min