Our latest Investment Insights highlights why we still see US or global recession as unlikely over the next 12 months, while also exploring some crucial differences that make the UK more vulnerable.
Investment Insights Q3 2022
Our latest Insights highlights why we still see US or global recession as unlikely over the next 12 months, despite what you might be reading in the headlines of the financial press. In any case, no two downturns are the same (each is unhappy in its own way), and a crucial point that often goes missing in the current debate is that it’s still too early to be clear about what kind this one will be, and therefore how to properly defend portfolios against it.
Of course we remain vigilant as the number of yellow flags increase, and in this latest edition of Insights, we also explore some crucial differences between the US and UK, and why we are more vulnerable to a recession on this side of the pond.
Looking back at a relevant bit of history, our article "Echoes of 1952" compares Queen Elizabeth II's Jubilee and Accession years, with a hopeful comparison to a period of high inflation and rising interest rates when Her Majesty the Queen began her reign.
Another silver lining in all the recent bad news is that it may be making corporate bonds more attractive. This quarter's Insights also includes some positive messages with a long shelf life, including articles on what proxy voting is and what can it achieve as well as a look at "The long road to renewables" and the risks and opportunities along the way for the energy sector.
Liz Savage and Ed Smith
Co-chief investment officers