Following China’s ‘great reopening’, growth is likely to accelerate this year. But we’re sceptical that it will be as successful as many are currently assuming. We expect the road ahead to be bumpy, the same sawtooth pattern that characterised other post-COVID re-openings. Longer term, this cyclical rebound is likely to give way to structurally slower growth.
Investment Report - China past its peak
24 April 2023
Not so long ago China seemed to be on an inevitable path to surpassing the US as the world’s largest economy, and it’s still seen by many as a place to invest for superior growth. But we are already well over a decade into a structural slowdown in China’s economy, and investors may have yet to fully account for China’s diminished longer-term growth prospects.