Skip to main content
  • What We Do
    • Investment Management
    • Financial Planning
    • Trust and Tax
    • International investment
    • Greenbank - Ethical and sustainable investment
    • Asset Management
    • PERSONAL INJURY AND COURT OF PROTECTION
  • Our Clients
    • Individuals and Families
    • Charities
    • Financial Advisers
    • Professional INTERMEDIARIES
    • Entrepreneurs
  • About Group
    • About us
      • Rathbones Group
      • Saunderson House
      • Our Purpose
      • Partnerships
      • Our Offices
      • Events
        • All events
        • Financial awareness courses
      • Our story
    • Responsibility
      • Responsible Business
      • Responsible Investment
      • Climate Reporting
      • Reports
    • Investors
      • Investor Relations
      • Reports and Results
      • Shareholder Information
      • Investment Case
      • Financial Calendar
      • Share Price Information
      • Contacts and Offices
    • Governance
      • Group executive committee
      • Board Committees
      • Directors
      • Policies
      • Articles of association
      • Corporate Governance
    • Media Centre
    • Careers
      • Vacancies
      • Investing in our people
      • Working at Rathbones
      • Your Career
      • Early Careers
    • Our People
  • RATHBONES
  • Insights
    • Knowledge and Insight
    • Rathbones Review Winter 2025
    • Know Where Life Can Take You
    • Insights
      • Investment insights
      • Investment Reports
        • Polls apart: Navigating America’s divisive election
        • Investing for the next decade
        • Peace of mind in a dangerous world
        • Building a more sustainable future
        • The Cloud Revolution
      • Financial Planning Insights
      • Financial Wellbeing Research
      • Responsible investment insights
      • Earth Convention
    • Podcasts
      • Financial Planning Unlocked
      • Inspired Minds
      • Inspired Sounds
  • Contact
    • Contact Us
    • Our Offices
  • Client Portals
    • About our client portals
    • MyRathbones Login
    • Rathbones Financial Planning Online Login
Home Home

Search

  • What We Do
    • Investment Management
    • Financial Planning
    • Trust and Tax
    • International investment
    • Greenbank - Ethical and sustainable investment
    • Asset Management
    • PERSONAL INJURY AND COURT OF PROTECTION
  • Our Clients
    • Individuals and Families
    • Charities
    • Financial Advisers
    • Professional INTERMEDIARIES
    • Entrepreneurs
  • About Group
    • About us
      • Rathbones Group
      • Saunderson House
      • Our Purpose
      • Partnerships
      • Our Offices
      • Events
        • All events
        • Financial awareness courses
      • Our story
    • Responsibility
      • Responsible Business
      • Responsible Investment
      • Climate Reporting
      • Reports
    • Investors
      • Investor Relations
      • Reports and Results
      • Shareholder Information
      • Investment Case
      • Financial Calendar
      • Share Price Information
      • Contacts and Offices
    • Governance
      • Group executive committee
      • Board Committees
      • Directors
      • Policies
      • Articles of association
      • Corporate Governance
    • Media Centre
    • Careers
      • Vacancies
      • Investing in our people
      • Working at Rathbones
      • Your Career
      • Early Careers
    • Our People
  • RATHBONES
  • Insights
    • Knowledge and Insight
    • Rathbones Review Winter 2025
    • Know Where Life Can Take You
    • Insights
      • Investment insights
      • Investment Reports
        • Polls apart: Navigating America’s divisive election
        • Investing for the next decade
        • Peace of mind in a dangerous world
        • Building a more sustainable future
        • The Cloud Revolution
      • Financial Planning Insights
      • Financial Wellbeing Research
      • Responsible investment insights
      • Earth Convention
    • Podcasts
      • Financial Planning Unlocked
      • Inspired Minds
      • Inspired Sounds
  • Contact
    • Contact Us
    • Our Offices
  • Client Portals
    • About our client portals
    • MyRathbones Login
    • Rathbones Financial Planning Online Login
Home

Search

Recession signals not yet past sell-by date

It was about this time last year that we expressed the view that US and global recession were likely to start within the next 12 months. Yet no recession has arrived. In this video, our co-CIO Ed Smith explains why we haven’t changed our cautious outlook and positioning.

By Edward Smith 11 August 2023

Breadcrumb

  1. Home
  2. Knowledge and Insight
  3. Recession signals not yet past sell-by date

Article last updated 11 August 2023.

As we planned for different scenarios (which is what portfolio management is all about) we acknowledged the possibility of a so-called soft landing (or immaculate disinflation), whereby inflation falls but growth doesn’t tumble, but it wasn’t our base case. We believed that inflation would return to the normal range by the end of 2023 – a forecast that looks to be accurate outside of the UK, where we have long flagged the biggest risks – but that a cyclical downturn was a likely corollary.  

As Ed explains in this video, the signals that we look at to help us forecast whether we are likely to enter recession or not operate with long and variable lags. And while it may seem like we’ve been banging on about this recession for ages, there are no recession signals that are yet past their “sell-by” dates, past which we could say for sure that “it’s different this time”. Instead, we are well within the past windows between a warning signal and the start of a recession.

To help explain what’s kept the global economy relatively resilient for longer than we expected and to summarise where we might go from here, we’ve produced a SWOT analysis – strengths and  weaknesses of the global economy, and the opportunities and threats it faces in the months ahead. 

DOWNLOAD SLIDE

Popular Articles

image of shipping containers in a shipping yard from above
4 April 2025

Trump’s tariffs: how should investors respond?

Stock markets have reacted badly to the worse than expected news on US trade policy. We favour a more conservative asset allocation in response – but it’s possible to be too gloomy.

Find out more

5 mins

Black wire-framed spectacles, a white calculator and a gold pen lie on a light blue accounting ring-binder folder
6 May 2025

Review of the week: End of an era

Arguably the best investor of all time has decided to retire at the end of the year. Meanwhile, UK interest rates are forecast to fall in a bid to prop up the economy.

Find out more

6 mins

Golden crown on black background
7 April 2025

Review of the week: The emperor's new tariffs

Markets are tumbling fast in response to US tariffs that will upend global trade. Perhaps more dangerous than the policy itself is just how silly it makes the administration look.

Find out more

9 mins

MOST READ
  1. Trump’s tariffs: how should investors respond?

  2. Review of the week: End of an era

  3. Review of the week: The emperor's new tariffs

  4. Review of the week: Gloves off?

  5. A spring statement on fiscal discipline

Let's Talk

Ready to start a conversation? Please complete our enquiry form, we look forward to speaking with you.

Enquire
  • Important Information
    • Modern Slavery Statement
    • Important information
    • Complaints
    • Privacy
    • Accessibility
    • Climate Reporting
    • Cookies
    • Cookie Preferences
    • Sitemap
  • Other information
    • Financial Services Compensation Scheme
    • Financial Ombudsman Service
    • Scam Smart
    • Keeping our clients safe
    • MiFID II Cost and Charges FAQ
    • Statement of Cost and Charges
    • Banking Services
    • Interest Rates
    • Consumer Duty Manufacturer Request for Information
Address

Rathbones Group Plc
30 Gresham Street
London
EC2V 7QN

© 2025 Rathbones Group Plc
Incorporated and registered in England and Wales.
Registered number 01000403

Follow us
Facebook Instagram LinkedIn Twitter Youtube

The value of your investments and the income from them may go down as well as up, and you could get back less than you invested.