Insights for professional partners

Rathbones’ head of equities Sanjiv Tumkur and head of asset allocation Oliver Jones discuss the outlook for global growth. Greenbank’s head of ethical, sustainable and impact research, Kate Elliot provides insight into the likelihood of a change in political leadership and what this could mean for investments.

Our 10th anniversary edition of Investment Insights leads with a hopeful note, looking at why we believe stronger foundations are being laid for a broad, sustainable recovery in stock markets.

Will it be a case of the tortoise versus the hare, with last year’s winners taking a breather while the laggards catch up?

In his latest video update, Rathbones’ co-chief investment officer Ed Smith notes the need to focus on quality as equity gains widen out, while bonds look attractive as inflation slows.

With the shadow of a general election looming over the government, chancellor jeremy hunt announced another reduction in the headline rate of national insurance (of two percentage points) in a bid to shore up his party’s flagging support. But that cut will do little to change the near-term economic outlook, and the work of dealing with the bigger structural problems facing the uk economy has largely been left until after the election.

Developed market equities have continued to perform well in the first few weeks of 2024. In part, this is commensurate with the improvement in some leading indicators of the economy, pointing towards a less challenging environment for corporate profits ahead. Edward Smith, our Co-CIO of Rathbones Investment Management, explores what this means for our investment strategy.

“Dashing superheroes rescue distressed equity investors from the perils of rising interest rates” could be the headline for last year’s lopsided stock market action. Dubbed the Magnificent Seven, a small group of companies — comprising Apple, Microsoft, Alphabet, Amazon, Nvidia, Meta and Tesla —contributed more than half of the gain in the S&P 500 in 2023.

“Dashing superheroes rescue distressed equity investors from the perils of rising interest rates” could be the headline for last year’s lopsided stock market action. Dubbed the Magnificent Seven, a small group of companies — Apple, Microsoft, Alphabet, Amazon, Nvidia, Meta and Tesla — contributed more than half of the gain in the S&P 500 in 2023 (figure 1). Will they continue to be such a key determinant of performance for charities with global equity exposure in 2024?

Long gone are the days when UK equities made up the majority of the average UK wealth management portfolio. We see that as a good thing in general, given our firm belief that a global mindset is important for delivering superior risk-adjusted returns. Still, the cavernous gap between the valuation of UK companies and their peers overseas is worth investigating.

Rathbones’ co-chief investment officer, Edward Smith and head of equities, Sanjiv Tumkur share their views on the key questions facing investors and the market impact of the Magnificent Seven US tech giants.

Our lead article to begin the new year takes a look at the tech companies known as the Magnificent Seven. Will these 'superheroes' drive market returns again in 2024?

Why investing in UK property is not always as safe as houses.

Major new technologies often result in investors over-extrapolating: think of radio stocks in the 1920s, or internet stocks in the late 90s. Or even the dominance of miners and oil producers in 2010 as globalisation — which is technological in a sense — was touted as never-ending. The history of artificial intelligence (AI) is filled with predictions that now seem absurd: pioneering computer scientist Herbert Simon said that by 1985 a computer would be as capable as the human brain.

The fits and starts may not be over, but we’re looking forward to a more sustainable recovery beginning in 2024.

The world has changed profoundly since the late 2010s, and the opportunities available to us as investors along with it. The strategies that serve us well today will look different to those that worked best in the unusual low-rate, low-volatility environment of the last decade.