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Chart of the week: All eyes on the yield curve…

Last Updated: September 30, 2025

As the joke goes, an inverted yield curve has predicted 11 of the past nine recessions. Its traditionally one of the most reliable harbingers of economic recession but a closer look at timings show that its use is limited. Over the past 50 years, the number of months from inversion (defined here as 1-year US Treasury yields surpassing 10-year yields) to recession has ranged from seven up to 24, averaging 14. So, an inverted yield curve has proved to be a reliable indication of recession, but not its timing.

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Chart of the week: Europe needs healthier banks

Last Updated: September 30, 2025

Large loan-loss provisions hamper Europe’s banks. These provisions cover things like bad loans and customer defaults and cost the sector a lot. The problem is particularly acute in Portugal and Italy but still prevalent in all the major European economies. The region needs recovery in its banking sector before the long-awaited upswing in its indices can begin. Until Europe’s banks free themselves from bad debt, the region will remain stuck in economic mud. 

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Chart of the week: Globalisation buffers portfolios

Last Updated: September 30, 2025

A quick look at the geographic exposure of the UK stock market reveals that the vast majority of UK stock market earnings are sourced from overseas. This is great news, as it means that our stock market is exposed to faster-growing economies which should boost revenue growth for UK equities. The benefits of globalisation should buffer any heavily UK-exposed portfolios. Read more about the future of our economy in our latest Investment Insights.

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