Article last updated 25 November 2025.
Economic data has improved recently, yet it’s not all roses: pandemic-era savings are likely depleted and there are signs that businesses are cutting back on staffing hours. Still, we think the chance of a US recession in 2024 has fallen to roughly 50/50. We’re more optimistic about 2024 than we were a few months ago, and believe finding companies with a track record of protecting their profit margins and delivering consistent profits will be important in this year.
