Investment Insights: January 2026

7 January 2026

Our monthly look at what’s driving global markets

Rathbones Investment Management

Article last updated 8 January 2026.

Our January edition features three stories — read online versions via the links below or download a PDF with all three articles.

In this edition:

Defence stocks could offer good long-term returns, as governments around the world increase military spending.
The Fed will probably resist presidential efforts to undermine its independence, but there’s a risk it won’t – another argument for shorter-dated bonds.
Looking back on 2025 markets – and looking ahead.

6 mins

8 January 2026

The battle for Fed independence: Keeping monetary policy free from harmful influence

Stock markets bounced wildly up and down, ending November roughly where they began. The ride for private equity might look smoother, but don’t be fooled by appearances.

The battle for Fed independence: Keeping monetary policy free from harmful influence

5 mins

8 January 2026

In defence of growing returns: Increasing military spending in a more dangerous world

Defence stocks have risen - but Claire Titmarsh sees further long-term potential, as governments devote a greater share of national economies to military spending

In defence of growing returns: Increasing military spending in a more dangerous world

6 mins

7 January 2026

Monthly Digest: Still looking for what could 'go right'

Equity gains were stronger than average in 2025, pleasantly surprising investors who are still climbing a wall of worry. The outlook remains positive as we look ahead to the new year, though similar uncertainties also look likely to persist.

Monthly Digest: Still looking for what could 'go right'

Download these articles in a single PDF file

Snapshot

The global economy and markets

Figure of the month

$514bn

Expected 2026 capital spending of five big tech firms – Alphabet, Amazon, Meta, Microsoft and Oracle – roughly equal to the size of Norway’s economy. Much of this investment is driven by AI. Optimists see AI unlocking faster economic growth. Sceptics argue the benefits may take years to materialise and accrue more to customers than to shareholders.

At a glance

$1.076tn

China's trade surplus (first 11 months of 2025)

7.4%

US fiscal deficit for 2025 (forecast)

2.0%

Annual rise in Arabica coffee prices

0.2%

Germany’s GDP growth in 2025 (forecast)

Key market indicators

Equities

Total return in sterling (1 Jan 2021 = 100)

Government bonds

2–year yields (%)

Sterling

Value of £1 in US dollars and euros

Corporate bonds

Option-adjusted spread over government bonds (bp)

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