Article last updated 19 July 2025.
In the five weeks since my last video following President Trump’s self-proclaimed Liberation Day, he has delayed his proposed tariffs by 90 days, made a trade agreement with the UK and announced another major climbdown on sky-high 145% tariffs on Chinese goods.
For sure, we’re all wondering whether these tariff delays will become permanent. But financial markets have so far responded positively, and confidence has returned. The market reaction shows how powerful even partial clarity can be.
In this video I consider the nuanced impact of this truce on the economic outlook and take a step back to consider the remarkable performance of global equity markets over the past seven-plus years of rising global trade tensions. Years that have had their fair share of turmoil for investors.
Finally, I explain how we’re staying invested, but preparing for volatility – and the three key things we’ll be watching:
- Trade relations – will the truce last, will a deal be reached with the EU?
- US Federal Reserve policy – are they done cutting interest rates and if so, how will markets digest this?
- Company earnings and profit margins – the next few quarters will be crucial for understanding the pressure points, and which sectors are most vulnerable
You can read more about our views on the latest economic and market developments and what they mean for you at this link to our Insights page.
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