Financial and political chaos were widely predicted if the UK voted for ‘Brexit’, yet all is calm. While we remain unconcerned about the risk of a meaningful economic contraction in the short term, there are several risks to the UK and global economies.
Myth 5: foreign investors will withdraw from the UK if it leaves the EU.
Myth 4: The UK's budget balance would improve substantially if we leave the EU.
Myth 3 - Swiss financial services have thrived outside of the EU: this could be a model for the UK.
Myth 2: The UK's trade balance will collapse if we withdraw from the EU.
Myth 1: restricting migrants from the EU will lead to better prospects for UK workers
When it comes to economic data, financial markets tend to be more sensitive to how close the numbers are to expectations than the figures themselves. We call this difference the ‘economic surprise’. Statistics about the UK’s labour market have delivered plenty of surprises over the past few years.