Investment insights

Ructions in the banking sector don’t appear to be the first tremors of a systemic financial crisis, but rather a delayed, jolting reaction to the steepest rate increases in 40 years

Hear from our co-chief investment officer, Ed Smith and head of client development, Ian Dembinski in our quarterly Investment Insights webinar which highlights some of the key themes that are set to shape the investment landscape in 2023.

Our latest InvestmentInsights looks to demystify some misconceptions about growth and value investing, with important implications given the risks of recession this year. We also highlight the signs we will be looking for to know when it's time to turn more positive.

In these videos Rathbones’ co-chief investment officer Ed Smith gives a review of 2022 and discusses our outlook for 2023.

We can see a path to a new bull market in the second half of 2023, but we’re not there yet.

Our latest Investment Insights looks to take the global economy's pulse at a time of great uncertainty in the outlook for the global economy and markets. We take a look at the different challenges facing the world's major economies, and how we can adapt our investment strategy in the face of an increasingly difficult backdrop.

Our latest Investment Insights highlights why we still see US or global recession as unlikely over the next 12 months, while also exploring some crucial differences that make the UK more vulnerable. 

Our latest edition starts by comparing and contrasting the current outlook with 1970s ‘stagflation’. New this quarter are regular feature articles looking at one of our long-term investment themes and a topic with ESG implications. This time we consider opportunities in sustainable agriculture and what the war in Ukraine means for the green energy transition.

Risks of higher inflation and slower growth have gone up, and so too have the number and degree of uncertainties around the investment implications.

Ukrainian troops and pro-Russian separatists have traded fire and recriminations in the annexed territory of eastern Ukraine, taking the region to the brink of war.

The quality and visibility of company profits are what matter.

It’s been a difficult start to the new year for investors, with the global equity benchmark falling into so-called ‘correction’ territory. We can't say for sure when the pain will end, but for the reasons set out in this update, we are confident the correction will be short-lived.

Inflation is high but the pace of economic growth isn’t stagnating.

The final quarter of 2021 proved to be an eventful one for the global economy, with surging inflation and ongoing concerns about supply shortages. Yet markets performed relatively well over the period despite the new Omicron strain adding to the uncertainty. As we look ahead to 2022, economic indicators suggest the post-COVID recovery should continue, and so too should earnings growth.

After a stunning second quarter for economic growth and corporate profits as the world started opening back up again, investor optimism has been tempered. Growth is slowing down in China, the first major economy to regain its lost output, and the global economic recovery seems to be coming off the boil too. Still, we think going from great to merely good will still be good enough.

Resurgent growth in the post-COVID world has rekindled talk of the next ‘supercycle’ for industrial commodities. But beneath the headlines, the reality is that this demand is likely to pale in comparison with the driver of the original supercycle.

Investor optimism spread over the second quarter as economies around the world continued to reopen and many aspects of our lives returned to normal. Successful vaccination programmes and stimulus measures across the developed world improved the global outlook.

This year has started off on a positive note, with vaccination programmes making rapid progress and keeping investors optimistic about the prospects for the global economic recovery. While bond markets experienced some volatility during the first quarter, the situation stabilised towards the end of the period.

Financial markets have been on a rollercoaster over the past year. There was a sharp drop in March as countries locked down and then a swift upswing followed, led by technology shares. Even unloved companies, particularly banks and energy firms, have rebounded lately, thanks to good news about vaccines.

As COVID-19 continues to affect our lives and influence economic activity around the world, there’s lots of uncertainty about what the future holds. Localised outbreaks and lockdowns are possible anywhere until a vaccine is found, with the level of unemployment likely to be the key factor driving the pace of the recovery over the next couple of years.

The healing process

The global economy is reopening for business as the COVID-19 virus recedes, and the groundwork has been laid for a speedy recovery by massive government and central bank stimulus. 

When the going gets tough

Our lives have been turned upside down by the coronavirus crisis, which is having a profound impact on the global economy and financial markets. Governments are working hard not just to slow the spread of the virus but also to help businesses and their employees. They've announced a range of extraordinary measures, which are being supported by action from central banks.

How low can yields go?

Trade wars continue to cloud the outlook for businesses and consumers. Closer to home, Brexit uncertainty has gone from bad to worse. Our new Prime Minister Boris Johnson’s first few weeks in office have been pretty spectacular.

We’re spending more time than ever before shopping through our smartphones and laptops rather than braving multi-storey car parks and crowded high streets. 

When the pace of economic growth begins to slow and the outlook becomes more gloomy, it makes sense for investors to start shifting their equity investments away from cyclical sectors and towards defensive ones, even if you don’t think a recession is necessarily likely to ensue.

While the Brexit deadline draws closer, the route to a deal between the UK and the European Union (EU) shows no signs of materialising.