While financial markets in the developed world responded positively to the election of Donald Trump, the reaction in emerging markets (EMs) was mostly negative.
One of the most overlooked risks for financial markets over the next decade is the potential for the US to impose tariffs on imports. This risk is greatest if Donald Trump wins on 8 November. Yet our analysis suggests conditions are ripe for protectionism to have broader popular appeal: less extreme politicians than Mr Trump could use it to secure votes.
Few would dispute that a grounding in economics is a vital weapon in any professional investor’s arsenal, but evidence increasingly suggests an understanding of psychology could be just as or even more important. Recent financial events reveal repeated patterns of irrationality, inconsistency and incompetence in human decision-making.
In an age of quantitative easing, negative interest rates, low oil prices and limited spending, many investors could be forgiven for finding the global economy increasingly difficult to understand. We look at some of the driving forces and consider how best to respond to a frequently puzzling picture.
Diversification has long been used to decrease investment risk by reducing exposure to a particular asset. It works within a single asset class — a portfolio of stocks is less risky than holding shares in one company — but can be more effective across different asset classes.
When it comes to economic data, financial markets tend to be more sensitive to how close the numbers are to expectations than the figures themselves. We call this difference the ‘economic surprise’. Statistics about the UK’s labour market have delivered plenty of surprises over the past few years.