Knowledge and Insight - Review of the week

Political violence in the US is overshadowing last week’s big moves in the biggest US stocks, and widespread gains for smaller stocks too.

Sometimes polls are right and sometimes polls are wrong. Last week, we saw classic examples of both.

The right-wing Rassemblement National was the big winner in the first round of French elections, but the most conclusive vote comes this weekend. Before then, the UK votes on its own Parliament.

France goes to the polls for the first round of voting, the two candidates for the White House spar and the Euro knockout phase begins.

The US Federal Reserve rows back on the potential for interest rate cuts even as inflation improves. Meanwhile, the French election also reverberates through bond markets.

The year of the election is already providing warning signs to expect the unexpected. Even when outcomes aren’t a huge surprise, painful (if temporary) pitfalls may lie ahead.

Uncomfortable weather hangs over the UK and its markets as everyone waits for a sign of summer.

With the UK heading to the polls sooner than expected, the government announces policies that resonate with older voters. Meanwhile, disappointing inflation may have kiboshed a summer rate cut.

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US economic data is softening, yet there seems a way to go before interest rates start to fall. On this side of the Atlantic it’s the complete opposite.

A run of weaker data is rekindling expectations of US interest rate cuts. They’re more likely to arrive on the other side of the Atlantic, yet even there risks of overoptimism remain.

Fading strength in the labour market and services businesses have increased hopes that interest rates can still be cut this year. Everybody is watching the Fed watch the data.

The great uncertainty over whether and when US interest rates will fall took a twist with first-quarter GDP. Much slower growth, offsetting dynamics and higher inflation are creating a puzzle.