With the EU referendum and the election of Donald Trump, 2016 has been an interesting year. Neither result was predicted by the experts or pollsters who get paid so well to know ‘what people think’. And, in both cases, the victors made campaign commitments that were outright nonsense.
Despite widespread calls for fiscal stimulus, the Chancellor confirmed the government will continue with austerity, albeit a little less aggressively.
Following the election of Donald Trump as the next President of the United States, investors should take note of the hidden costs of protectionism.
Donald Trump will become the 45th President of the United States, and the Republicans will retain control of the House and the Senate for the 115th Congress.
One of the most overlooked risks for financial markets over the next decade is the potential for the US to impose tariffs on imports. This risk is greatest if Donald Trump wins on 8 November. Yet our analysis suggests conditions are ripe for protectionism to have broader popular appeal: less extreme politicians than Mr Trump could use it to secure votes.
The period since the UK voted to leave the European Union (EU) reminds us of the Phoney War. Although we have a new prime minister, little has changed, other than sterling’s precipitous decline.
Financial and political chaos were widely predicted if the UK voted for ‘Brexit’, yet all is calm. While we remain unconcerned about the risk of a meaningful economic contraction in the short term, there are several risks to the UK and global economies.
Globalisation is a highly contentious issue with many advocates and detractors. Nonetheless, throughout history, free trade has generally been good for prosperity, whereas periods of protectionism, such as those of the Corn Laws and Great Depression, have not.
Investment Perspectives: What is fact and what is fiction? That question has never been more pertinent as the UK weighs up the arguments ahead of the In/Out referendum on 23 June.
Our report specifically looks to address five myths around key areas of the Brexit debate: immigration, trade, financials, public finance, and foreign investment.