It’s helpful to think of inflation in terms of the old adage, too much money chasing too few goods. But don’t let the simplicity of that statement fool you: the factors that influence the flow of money and the amount of goods (and services) produced are vast, and we have limited our discussion to three broad topics.
A permanent change in the age structure of a population — its demography — can alter patterns of consumption, saving and investment. It can also affect the size of the workforce and its skillset, the rate of productivity growth, and the way in which income is distributed between labour and the owners of land and capital.
Globalisation has come a long way fast, but the process has slowed. On the basis of the Fraser Institute’s Economic Freedom Index, more than 98% of the world’s population has lived in a capitalist society since 2005, up from just 30% in 1985 (figure 9).
The elusive relationship between jobs, wages and prices.
If falling dependency ratios and globalisation have eroded workers’ bargaining power in advanced economies, is there still a link between a country’s employment conditions and its rate of inflation?
As we’ve seen, some of the structural forces that shape inflation are shifting in interesting ways. But the balance of evidence does not suggest a significant likelihood of either a profoundly inflationary or profoundly deflationary scenario. We’re sorry if this makes the report a bit of a let-down.
Investors today are paying a relatively high price for the domestically focused FTSE 250 compared with its larger multinational peers in the FTSE 100. This may seem counter-intuitive given Brexit uncertainty and concerns about the outlook for the domestic economy. But the answer to this conundrum may not be as simple as merely buying the cheaper of the two indices.
It is claimed that technology is changing the world at an unprecedented pace. Our disruptive technology seminar, addressing the social, economic and investment implications of these changes, took place at the Soho Hotel on Thursday 2 November.
“The clear and present danger of climate change means we cannot burn our way to prosperity. We already rely too heavily on fossil fuels. We need to find a new, sustainable path to the future we want. We need a clean industrial revolution.”