Rather than try to reduce it by austerity, inflation or default, the government should focus on keeping the rate of economic growth above the cost of servicing the debt.
Stimulus should be forthcoming and trade uncertainty relieved, even if Congress remains split
The rule of law should prevail and the recovery continue, though a long delay could weaken it
Biden has taken the edge in the polls but previous experience begs the question: do polls really matter? Our chief investment officer, Julian Chillingworth, mulls the possible outcomes of the US election and the effectiveness of the UK government’s spending packages.
Labour’s manifesto is no ‘revolution’, but radical enough to skew economic risks to the downside.
Clearing the hurdles
With the influence of politics on the global economy growing, could game theory provide a model for success?
UK stocks have underperformed other major developed markets so far in 2018, extending a pattern that has been in place since the June 2016 vote to leave the EU. A longer-term analysis also suggests Brexit isn’t the only thing weighing on UK companies, so why should investors be interested in UK equities now? We think investors are pricing in a fairly negative Brexit scenario, and see UK shares as offering fundamental value and opportunity in differing economic outlooks.
The threat of higher inflation and rising interest rates spooked global stock markets in February and pushed up government bond yields. We expect the trend of rising yields to persist and be a dominant investment theme over the coming year, with implications for equities.
