Knowledge and Insight - Politics

Why President Joe Biden’s next 100 days will be far more important than his first.

A roller-coaster of a year finished on a high note for the markets, and we start 2021 with a sense of relief that one of the most difficult years many of us have ever experienced is behind us.

One President will be sworn in as his predecessor is set to be impeached. What matters for the US now is a united front from lawmakers to support the economy against the latest wave of COVID-19.

While we were all cooped up inside, everything was happening out there. Breakthroughs on Brexit and COVID-19 collided with political strife and big moves in bond yields.

Rather than try to reduce it by austerity, inflation or default, the government should focus on keeping the rate of economic growth above the cost of servicing the debt. 

Stimulus should be forthcoming and trade uncertainty relieved, even if Congress remains split

The rule of law should prevail and the recovery continue, though a long delay could weaken it

Biden has taken the edge in the polls but previous experience begs the question: do polls really matter? Our chief investment officer, Julian Chillingworth, mulls the possible outcomes of the US election and the effectiveness of the UK government’s spending packages. 

Labour’s manifesto is no ‘revolution’, but radical enough to skew economic risks to the downside.

Clearing the hurdles

With the influence of politics on the global economy growing, could game theory provide a model for success?