As the Bank of England raises interest rates for the first time in a decade, the baton of economic stimulus is being passed to the government. Fiscal policy will have to smooth the way for UK growth here on in, but Chief Investment Officer Julian Chillingworth wonders if the government can deliver.
Sterling is more capricious than a cat with a vendetta argues David Coombs, our sleep-deprived head of multi-asset investments.
Bank of England Governor Mark Carney has been toying with investors’ emotions for so long that markets really should be used to it by now, head of fixed income Bryn Jones argues.
A North Korean missile, potentially capable of carrying a nuclear payload, soared over Japan in late August and sunk into the Sea of Japan. In response, 10-year Japanese government bond (JGBs) yields sunk too, from 0.009% to -0.009%.
Europe has long been seen as the unloved problem child of developed markets, beset with fiscal problems, threatened by disintegration and unable to escape from chronic underperformance. Now it’s the new favourite. But can Europe justify its new-found popularity and higher valuations?
Inflation has flared up again in the UK, but that doesn’t mean the globe is awash with soaring prices.
Just one-fifth of the 35 countries in the OECD economic policy network have inflation above 2%. Usually, that would be more like four-fifths.
Markets held their nerve in May amid a fresh terrorist atrocity in Manchester (soon followed by another in London in early June) and as polls published during the month pointed to growing uncertainty over the outcome of the fast-approaching general election.
On Wednesday I was speaking at a conference in London explaining that – with political risk and uncertainty here to stay – active management was needed now more than ever. Right on cue, the Labour Party duly delivered its manifesto the next day.
Economists are a little jinxed right now. Whatever they say is likely to happen, the opposite has a funny way of showing up.
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