The final quarter of 2021 proved to be an eventful one for the global economy, with surging inflation and ongoing concerns about supply shortages. Yet markets performed relatively well over the period despite the new Omicron strain adding to the uncertainty. As we look ahead to 2022, economic indicators suggest the post-COVID recovery should continue, and so too should earnings growth.
A new strain of COVID-19 has further fogged up unclear forecasts about what winter will bring for households, businesses and monetary policy.
It’s shaping up to be another winter tarnished by the virus. As if central bankers needed more complexity on top of huge government spending, upended supply chains and confused labour markets.
The recovery has come off the boil, but we think it will continue supporting the markets.
You might think this has been a bleak time to be a British dairy farmer, with Brexit, COVID-19 and the growth of veganism adding pressure to an already demanding job. But Britain’s farmers are a tough breed, and many of them are responding to the challenge with energy and creativity.
Many charities have shown inspiring levels of innovation and fortitude during the COVID-19 crisis. We reflect on some of the key factors that could help organisations build resilience and adapt for the future.
We expect inflation to start to fade in the second half of the year, allowing central bankers to keep their foot on the accelerator with loose monetary policy.
Indicators of a strong post-COVID recovery keep coming out of the US and other major developed economies, but upside data surprises have brought with them concerns of persistent high inflation.