Rathbones’ head of equities Sanjiv Tumkur and head of asset allocation Oliver Jones discuss the outlook for global growth. Greenbank’s head of ethical, sustainable and impact research, Kate Elliot provides insight into the likelihood of a change in political leadership and what this could mean for investments.

Our 10th anniversary edition of Investment Insights leads with a hopeful note, looking at why we believe stronger foundations are being laid for a broad, sustainable recovery in stock markets.

Will it be a case of the tortoise versus the hare, with last year’s winners taking a breather while the laggards catch up?

In his latest video update, Rathbones’ co-chief investment officer Ed Smith notes the need to focus on quality as equity gains widen out, while bonds look attractive as inflation slows.

In the looming shadow of an election

Developed market equities have continued to perform well in the first few weeks of 2024. In part, this is commensurate with the improvement in some leading indicators of the economy, pointing towards a less challenging environment for corporate profits ahead. Edward Smith, our Co-CIO of Rathbones Investment Management, explores what this means for our investment strategy.

America’s Magnificent Seven tech titans drove equity gains last year, but the latest earnings results have been less than magnificent for some. Can they repeat their performance in 2024?

Pessimism about UK equities is widely held. If it’s based on misconceptions, this could be opening up an opportunity.

Rathbones’ co-chief investment officer, Edward Smith and head of equities, Sanjiv Tumkur share their views on the key questions facing investors and the market impact of the Magnificent Seven US tech giants.

Our lead article to begin the new year takes a look at the tech companies known as the Magnificent Seven. Will these 'superheroes' drive market returns again in 2024?

Why investing in UK property is not always as safe as houses.

Major new technologies often result in investors over-extrapolating: think of radio stocks in the 1920s, or internet stocks in the late 90s. Or even the dominance of miners and oil producers in 2010 as globalisation — which is technological in a sense — was touted as never-ending.

The fits and starts may not be over, but we’re looking forward to a more sustainable recovery beginning in 2024.

For over a year we have been saying that a US and global recession were likely to start within the next 12 months. Our views warranted a cautious investment approach focused on areas of the market that would be likely to produce steadier returns in an economic downturn.

The inflationary shocks caused by the pandemic and war in Ukraine are finally unwinding. But the welcome fading of these shocks doesn’t mean that we’re returning to an environment just like the one before they hit.

We delve into the world of generative AI, demystify this technology craze and consider the investment opportunities and risks it might bring.

What are the big ‘what-ifs’ keeping people awake at night and how can we have peace of mind as investors in a dangerous world? We run through the risks and discuss our approach to monitoring them as investors.

What might happen next as central banks come to the end of their interest rate increases? Will this signal better returns for investors next year? Edward Smith, co-chief investment officer shares his insight. In addition, Oliver Jones, head of asset allocation, provides an update on China.

As the inflationary shocks caused by the pandemic and war in Ukraine finally begin to unwind, we take a look at how the world has changed profoundly, and the opportunities available to us as investors along with it.

In hindsight we underestimated the resilience of the global economy in 2023 and could have advocated taking more risk. But as Rathbones’ Co-CIO Ed Smith explains in this video, global earnings have been falling since January and equity markets have been largely driven by sentiment.

The darkest hour for economic indicators is still approaching; then comes the dawn.

Rathbones’ co-chief investment officer, Edward Smith and head of equities, Sanjiv Tumkur provide an update on the market outlook. They discuss current thinking on the wider global economy and markets, in addition to some of the key developments to watch out for over the rest of the year.

Markets and economic data have been sending conflicting signals. Technology shares are being snapped up as new AI applications like Chat GPT burst onto the scene. But most of the rest of the global equity markets remain in the doldrums, and government bonds have had a drubbing. But there are plenty of reasons to be cheerful as we look to relax and enjoy the rest of the summer.

What to do when markets and data seem full of conflicting messages

Rathbones’ Edward Smith, co-chief investment officer, and Jing Hu, senior asset allocation analyst, give an update on some of the key themes shaping the investment outlook including the banking sector, the outlook for inflation and interest rates as well as a review of China.

We’ve certainly had a difficult start to the year, but what is the investment outlook as we look forward to sunnier days ahead? Our latest Investment Insights considers some of the key themes – such as expectations versus reality for US company profits and the search for inflation protection. 

A year of rapid-fire interest rate hikes by central banks is yet to be fully felt by the wider economy. Rathbones’ co-chief investment officer Ed Smith explains why that makes us cautious.

Ructions in the banking sector don’t appear to be the first tremors of a systemic financial crisis, but rather a delayed, jolting reaction to the steepest rate increases in 40 years

Hear from our co-chief investment officer, Edward Smith and head of client development, Ian Dembinski in our quarterly Investment Insights webinar which highlights some of the key themes that are set to shape the investment landscape in 2023.

Our latest InvestmentInsights looks to demystify some misconceptions about growth and value investing, with important implications given the risks of recession this year. We also highlight the signs we will be looking for to know when it's time to turn more positive.

In these videos Rathbones’ co-chief investment officer Ed Smith gives a review of 2022 and discusses our outlook for 2023.

We can see a path to a new bull market in the second half of 2023, but we’re not there yet.

Our latest Investment Insights looks to take the global economy's pulse at a time of great uncertainty in the outlook for the global economy and markets. We take a look at the different challenges facing the world's major economies, and how we can adapt our investment strategy in the face of an increasingly difficult backdrop.

Our latest Investment Insights highlights why we still see US or global recession as unlikely over the next 12 months, while also exploring some crucial differences that make the UK more vulnerable. 

Our latest edition starts by comparing and contrasting the current outlook with 1970s ‘stagflation’. New this quarter are regular feature articles looking at one of our long-term investment themes and a topic with ESG implications. This time we consider opportunities in sustainable agriculture and what the war in Ukraine means for the green energy transition.

Risks of higher inflation and slower growth have gone up, and so too have the number and degree of uncertainties around the investment implications.

Ukrainian troops and pro-Russian separatists have traded fire and recriminations in the annexed territory of eastern Ukraine, taking the region to the brink of war.

The quality and visibility of company profits are what matter.

It’s been a difficult start to the new year for investors, with the global equity benchmark falling into so-called ‘correction’ territory. We can't say for sure when the pain will end, but for the reasons set out in this update, we are confident the correction will be short-lived.

Inflation is high but the pace of economic growth isn’t stagnating.

The final quarter of 2021 proved to be an eventful one for the global economy, with surging inflation and ongoing concerns about supply shortages. Yet markets performed relatively well over the period despite the new Omicron strain adding to the uncertainty. As we look ahead to 2022, economic indicators suggest the post-COVID recovery should continue, and so too should earnings growth.

After a stunning second quarter for economic growth and corporate profits as the world started opening back up again, investor optimism has been tempered. Growth is slowing down in China, the first major economy to regain its lost output, and the global economic recovery seems to be coming off the boil too. Still, we think going from great to merely good will still be good enough.

Resurgent growth in the post-COVID world has rekindled talk of the next ‘supercycle’ for industrial commodities. But beneath the headlines, the reality is that this demand is likely to pale in comparison with the driver of the original supercycle.

Investor optimism spread over the second quarter as economies around the world continued to reopen and many aspects of our lives returned to normal. Successful vaccination programmes and stimulus measures across the developed world improved the global outlook.

This year has started off on a positive note, with vaccination programmes making rapid progress and keeping investors optimistic about the prospects for the global economic recovery. While bond markets experienced some volatility during the first quarter, the situation stabilised towards the end of the period.

Financial markets have been on a rollercoaster over the past year. There was a sharp drop in March as countries locked down and then a swift upswing followed, led by technology shares. Even unloved companies, particularly banks and energy firms, have rebounded lately, thanks to good news about vaccines.

As COVID-19 continues to affect our lives and influence economic activity around the world, there’s lots of uncertainty about what the future holds. Localised outbreaks and lockdowns are possible anywhere until a vaccine is found, with the level of unemployment likely to be the key factor driving the pace of the recovery over the next couple of years.

The healing process

The global economy is reopening for business as the COVID-19 virus recedes, and the groundwork has been laid for a speedy recovery by massive government and central bank stimulus. 

When the going gets tough

Our lives have been turned upside down by the coronavirus crisis, which is having a profound impact on the global economy and financial markets. Governments are working hard not just to slow the spread of the virus but also to help businesses and their employees. They've announced a range of extraordinary measures, which are being supported by action from central banks.

How low can yields go?

Trade wars continue to cloud the outlook for businesses and consumers. Closer to home, Brexit uncertainty has gone from bad to worse. Our new Prime Minister Boris Johnson’s first few weeks in office have been pretty spectacular.

We’re spending more time than ever before shopping through our smartphones and laptops rather than braving multi-storey car parks and crowded high streets. 

When the pace of economic growth begins to slow and the outlook becomes more gloomy, it makes sense for investors to start shifting their equity investments away from cyclical sectors and towards defensive ones, even if you don’t think a recession is necessarily likely to ensue.

While the Brexit deadline draws closer, the route to a deal between the UK and the European Union (EU) shows no signs of materialising.